US Open Thoughts

Good afternoon, my children. After watching a few matches from the opening day of the 2011 US Open, here's some musings on the tourney...

• Don't be shocked if Mardy Fish makes a deep run, here. He's currently the top ranked American at #8, playing the best tennis of his career at age 29, and is already the winner of the US Open Series (long story short, there's a point system, and he won it. He'll make double his prize money at this tournament for winning that series). Every couple of years, you have a Grand Slam tourney where the top 3-4 seeds fall earlier than the semis, and some journeyman sneaks through to win a one-and-only Slam (see: Thomas Johannson, Australian Open, 2002). It's been a long time since a Nadal or a Federer or a Djokovic or a Murray haven't been in a quarter or a semi at a Grand Slam tournament. Hence, it's been a long time since we've had one of those tournaments. Even if only 2 or 3 of them fall early, you've still got a chance at an outsider claiming a crown over a favored opponent in a semi or final (again, Thomas Johannson, Australian Open, 2002. Marat Safin had NO business losing that match). If these forces come together, and if the US crowd can get behind him, I think Mardy's got this kind of potential this year. I think his weight loss and his improved movement and serve make him a legitimate 2nd-tier threat. I'd also like to think that an American tennis player might actually win this thing ever again, as well. At least before I die.
  
• I watched Sharapova get tested in the first round of a Slam today. This isn't new, but the opponent today is someone to watch: Heather Watson. The 19-year old from Great Britain should give the U.K. some real buzz in the women's field for the first time since the 1970's and Virginia Wade. Much like a fairly decent women's player named Serena Williams, Heather goes for broke on every point. She's going to run down the ball until she just can't get to it anymore. She's smaller than Serena (granted, she might still have a late growth spurt in her future), so that'll dictate her ability to cover the court as her career progresses. All she seems to need is "the weapon," the one part of her game that could be considered deadly. Speed could be it, but with that as your main weapon, you have to be an incredible strategist to beat the likes of the Williams sisters, or any of the top 10 in today's game. Anyways, keep an eye on her, I know I will.
  
• Speaking of the women's game, can anyone tell me who's really number 1 right now? Seriously? Yes, Carolina Wozniacki is the computer #1, but let's face it, without a Slam victory to her credit, it's a hollow ranking at best. She plays almost every week and amasses points. It's no wonder that she's #1 if she's out there all the time. Problem is, by the time she gets to a two-week Slam, she tires out eventually. She needs to learn a bit of time-management. With Clijsters out with injury, and the rest of the top 10 being a who's-who of "who?" in recent years with turmoil preventing any traction for stability, is the 28th seeded 29-year old Serena Williams really the favorite to win this tournament? It would appear she is. She's the betting favorite, at the very least. 29-year old 28-seed is the betting favorite.
  
• That last point is somewhat remarkable if you think about the men's tour as recently as 3-4 years ago, when everyone was crying that there were 2 good players, and everyone else sucked. I was the only person who seemed to see the depth of the field (outside of the learned tournament commentators, of course), while everyone thought the women's field was the top draw. That's, supposedly, where the talent was. Well, Venus got old, Lindsay Davenport retired (again), Justine Henin retired (again), Amelie Mauresmo retired, Elena Dementieva retired, and suddenly we had the Williams sisters, Kim Clijsters, and a new generation of folks who don't want to seem to take the mantle. When Venus/Serena/Kim are gone, I wonder what the game will be like for a few years. Whereas on the men's side, even with Federer coming to the twilight of his years at 30, Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray are still going to be around for several years, and the depth in the men's field is as strong, if not stronger than it's ever been.
• Back to the men... Your obvious favorite here is 2-time finalist Djokovic. A 2011 record of 59-2 coming into the tourney, with 5 consecutive wins against Nadal, and an Australian Open and Wimbledon Championship. You'd think I'd pick him. However, his shoulder's been suspect in recent weeks. While he had 8 days of rest, I've had shoulder issues that last up to 2 months. If his serve has less pop, and his forehand has less zip, he's not going to win a match against one of the other big boys. Yes, I said what I did about Fish earlier, and he's definitely a darkhorse pic for me; but like I said, he's got to have a lot go his way. But my real prediction would actually have to be Federer. Here's the deal: you've seen my comment on Djokovic. Nadal's not always fresh at this time of year, and being the defending champ, the urgency isn't as strong to win this to complete the Career Grand Slam. Federer's clock is tick-tocking. This is his first Slam as a 30-year old. And with the 2012 Olympics being at The All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club (a little club in Wimbledon with which you may be familiar), I've got to think that FedEx knows that the time to bow out of the game is coming. Nadal and Djokovic have passed him and can beat him on any given occasion, he's 30, he's got 2 twin daughters, and millions and millions of dollars. Something tells me he plays through next season and calls it a day. That said, if he's ever going to win another Slam tournament, it needs to be soon. It probably needs to be now, actually. I've got a good feeling about him right now, too. Had a great French Open, a decent showing (not for his standards, though) at Wimbledon, and he's got a nice chance to win it. So, since it may be the final time I can ever legitimately pick Roger Federer to win a Grand Slam tournament, I'm going to do it.
• Off to watch the "Opening Ceremonies" to the tournament. I've always found that odd. The tournament started 6 hours earlier, several matches have been played, and THEN they have the Opening Ceremonies. Often they tribute one particular player and then get a big music name to do "God Bless America," and one other song with a local choir. Not sure who the "headliner" is, but then we get Venus Williams and Roger Federer in their first round matches. I'm a happy man this time of year. A happy man.
  

Enjoy the U.S. Open, folks. I'll be back to say more at some point before the end.