And the Grammy Will Go To...

One of my favorite things to do during the holiday season doesn't have anything to do with sleighbells jingling or pepper spraying someone for an XBox (I already have one). It's taking a look at the newly released Grammy Nomination list. I'd be remiss if I didn't share my opinions with you, my reading public. Prognosticating the Grammys is something that, for me, goes back to the early 1980s when I'd sit and handicap the field with my father, who was in the industry. Obviously, when I was that young, he'd kick my butt in the predictions, 'cause he knew how the Academy worked, and I was just a kid who liked a song. However, as I aged, I got better at the whole process, and now I tend to run at about an 85% clip every year. Sure, there's some surprises each year, but the Grammys can easily be dissected in some years. Adele made that very easy in 2011. Let's get to it...

• I saw a great quote earlier this week that said "Adele is going to win anything that isn't nailed down." Sure seems like it, doesn't it? Let's look at her bigger categories...
  Album of the Year: This is almost an absolute mortal lock. You look at the audiences of Bruno Mars, Rhianna, and Lady Gaga, and there's a lot of crossover there, meaning that they're likely to cancel each other out. This leaves only one possible contender to upset Adele, which is the Foo Fighters. I will go on record as saying that this is a puzzling nomination to me, as I wasn't the biggest fan of the album. But, suddenly, they're the "venerable older band" who's never gotten "the big award" in this category, and for that reason, they should be shown some respect when it comes to predicting this category. However, I'm not giving it to them, Adele wins this in a walk. Oh, did I mention I happen to think that "21" is the best album that was released this year, and possibly the last two or three?
  Song of the Year: Signed, sealed, delivered, this is Adele's to lose, once again. It's possible that the only song that didn't get nominated for this category that could beat "Rolling In The Deep" would be her own "Someone Like You." As this is a songwriter's award, and nobody disagrees that Adele can write the living snot out of a song, I can't see her losing this. My personal "other favorite" here is Bon Iver's "Holocene," but I think the nomination is really the win for Bon Iver, here, who is a strong contender for Best New Artist.
  Record of the Year: I'm happy to see the aforementioned "Holocene" here. I'm also happy to see Mumford & Sons' "The Cave" in this category. "Grenade" by Bruno Mars and "Firework" by Katy Perry are also strong nominees. Too bad they're losing to Adele, right? Honestly, I see her sweeping the top 3. Was there, honestly, a bigger hit this year than "Rolling In The Deep?" No, I didn't think so. Maybe a song or two sold more single copies, but they didn't capture the landscape like "RITD" did.
  As for her other categories (Pop Vocal Album, Pop Solo Vocal Performance, Short-Form Video) as places she could be upset by others who the voters want to give a win, but she very well could be a train that just can't be stopped.
  And let's remember one thing... I've been saying this would happen for months. Months, people. If you don't like Adele, make other plans on February 12th.
  
  
• Best New Artist: Likely, Nicki Minaj will win here, but I wouldn't be surprised if Bon Iver won. A LOT of critical acclaim for that album, and since there's nominations in Record/Song that have no shot in hell of winning, this is the possible winning category. More likely for Bon Iver, though, is a win over my personal favorite "The King Of Limbs" by Radiohead.
  
  
• So, Adele gets 6 nominations and the bulk of the buzz, and yet Kanye West has the most nominations. So, why isn't HE getting all the buzz? Well, a couple of reasons:
  1. People are just sick of his shit, to an extent.
  2. His solo album came out a year ago, so the buzz is gone.
  3. He also had an album with Jay-Z.
  So, when you think about it, you average him out at 3.5 nominations per album, and then it just makes Adele look better when she has 6 for 1 album.
  
  
• I'm intrigued by how the Academy has cut down the number of awards. The idea of combining the male and female vocal performances in each genre is a good one. Look, there were 152 awards, it was getting out of control. Even at a healthy 78, you won't get every award televised (especially when we get our 15-minute tribute to Salsa music about 2 hours in). I'm not sure who this helps or hurts, but it will be very interesting to see how all of it plays out this year... unless it's a category in which Adele has set up shop, then it's likely to be less interesting and more "what's she gonna say?"
  
  
• Another lock: in Best Pop Performance by a Duo/Group, Tony Bennett and Amy Winehouse are winning for "Body and Soul." The Academy loves, and I mean LOVES Tony Bennett, and they'll look to be reverential to Amy Winehouse in the year of her passing. If you can put money on some categories, go with this one.
  
  
• You know, I'm sort of surprised we don't see Cee-Lo Green's "The Lady Killer" in more categories, but I think it's another example of the album being released too early in the nomination process. And "F*** You" was really the only hit single off of there, and it was almost 18 months ago.
  

I'd love to hear some of your commentary below. What do you think of this year's nominees? Who do you think got screwed? Lemme know. I know I didn't cover everything, but we've got a couple of months before the show, so I'm likely to throw some thoughts into the blog here and there until that time. Thanks for checking in, y'all have a great week.